Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 29,815
2 Florida 26,822
3 Arizona 26,656
4 Mississippi 24,330
5 Alabama 22,231
6 New York 22,136
7 New Jersey 21,346
8 Georgia 20,894
9 South Carolina 20,772
10 Nevada 20,135
11 Texas 19,625
12 Rhode Island 19,419
13 Tennessee 19,291
14 District of Columbia 18,806
15 Massachusetts 17,967
16 Arkansas 17,587
17 Delaware 16,981
18 Maryland 16,751
19 Iowa 16,744
20 Illinois 16,567
21 California 16,070
22 Nebraska 15,799
23 Idaho 15,731
24 Utah 14,640
25 Connecticut 14,379
26 North Carolina 13,915
27 Virginia 12,585
28 Indiana 12,315
29 Oklahoma 12,310
30 Kansas 12,200
31 Wisconsin 12,159
32 South Dakota 11,710
33 Minnesota 11,660
34 Missouri 11,378
35 North Dakota 11,352
36 New Mexico 11,207
37 Michigan 10,300
38 Pennsylvania 10,130
39 Ohio 9,330
40 Kentucky 9,313
41 Colorado 9,271
42 Washington 9,259
43 Puerto Rico 8,379
44 Alaska 6,982
45 Wyoming 5,755
46 Oregon 5,562
47 Montana 5,436
48 New Hampshire 5,151
49 West Virginia 4,816
50 Hawaii 3,666
51 Maine 3,122
52 Vermont 2,447

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Texas 274
2 Nevada 240
3 Tennessee 208
4 Georgia 204
5 Florida 198
6 Missouri 194
7 Alabama 183
8 California 183
9 Puerto Rico 170
10 Mississippi 165
11 Iowa 164
12 Hawaii 158
13 Oklahoma 153
14 Idaho 149
15 Kansas 148
16 North Dakota 142
17 South Carolina 136
18 Illinois 134
19 South Dakota 126
20 Louisiana 125
21 Kentucky 119
22 Indiana 118
23 Minnesota 117
24 Wisconsin 116
25 Alaska 109
26 North Carolina 107
27 Arizona 101
28 Maryland 101
29 Virginia 100
30 Nebraska 99
31 Utah 92
32 Wyoming 85
33 Washington 84
34 Montana 76
35 Arkansas 75
36 Rhode Island 74
37 District of Columbia 73
38 Ohio 71
39 Michigan 68
40 Delaware 67
41 Oregon 66
42 West Virginia 66
43 New Mexico 54
44 Massachusetts 53
45 Pennsylvania 49
46 Colorado 46
47 Connecticut 34
48 New York 30
49 New Jersey 22
50 Maine 20
51 Vermont 13
52 New Hampshire 9

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,791
2 New York 1,667
3 Massachusetts 1,282
4 Connecticut 1,249
5 Louisiana 973
6 Rhode Island 965
7 District of Columbia 845
8 Mississippi 703
9 Michigan 660
10 Illinois 630
11 Arizona 619
12 Delaware 608
13 Maryland 602
14 Pennsylvania 588
15 Indiana 465
16 Florida 444
17 South Carolina 444
18 Georgia 435
19 Alabama 392
20 Texas 364
21 Nevada 349
22 New Mexico 342
23 Colorado 330
24 Ohio 327
25 Iowa 312
26 Minnesota 311
27 New Hampshire 311
28 California 286
29 Virginia 279
30 Washington 245
31 Missouri 239
32 North Carolina 227
33 Tennessee 200
34 Arkansas 199
35 Kentucky 188
36 Nebraska 187
37 Wisconsin 180
38 South Dakota 172
39 North Dakota 170
40 Oklahoma 168
41 Idaho 153
42 Kansas 140
43 Utah 114
44 Puerto Rico 104
45 Maine 94
46 Oregon 92
47 Vermont 92
48 West Virginia 89
49 Montana 76
50 Wyoming 57
51 Alaska 35
52 Hawaii 27

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Florida 6
2 Louisiana 6
3 Mississippi 5
4 South Carolina 5
5 Georgia 4
6 Texas 4
7 Arizona 3
8 Nevada 3
9 Alabama 2
10 Missouri 2
11 New Mexico 2
12 North Dakota 2
13 Tennessee 2
14 Arkansas 1
15 California 1
16 District of Columbia 1
17 Idaho 1
18 Indiana 1
19 Iowa 1
20 Kentucky 1
21 Massachusetts 1
22 Minnesota 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Ohio 1
25 Oklahoma 1
26 Puerto Rico 1
27 South Dakota 1
28 Washington 1
29 Wyoming 1
30 Alaska 0
31 Colorado 0
32 Connecticut 0
33 Delaware 0
34 Hawaii 0
35 Illinois 0
36 Kansas 0
37 Maine 0
38 Maryland 0
39 Michigan 0
40 Montana 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Jersey 0
44 New York 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Pennsylvania 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 140,642 1 99
Lafayette Florida 119,805 2 99
Lake Tennessee 114,595 3 99
Lee Arkansas 110,534 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 103,501 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 35,134 146 95
Richland South Carolina 22,619 407 87
Orange California 13,832 913 70
York South Carolina 13,549 948 69
Pierce Washington 7,487 1690 46

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Galax city Virginia 4,254 1 99
Hancock Georgia 4,139 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,297 5 99
Richland South Carolina 409 672 78
Davidson Tennessee 331 827 73
Orange California 255 1032 67
Pierce Washington 173 1331 57
York South Carolina 114 1639 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons